DUBLIN. For Ireland, promises a "political earthquake" after the megaprestito concesso da Fondo monetario internazionale (Fmi) e Banca centrale europea. A prevederlo è il sociologo Kieran Allen, che già prima della crisi aveva denunciato i rischi della bolla immobiliare e della finanziarizzazione dell’economia nell’isola. «I cittadini irlandesi sono stati traditi per salvare il sistema bancario europeo, che è l’unica cosa che preoccupi la Banca centrale europea», afferma Allen. Che aggiunge: «Quello che sta succedendo in Irlanda deve servire da avvertimento a Portogallo, Spagna e Italia. Gli speculatori non si fermeranno qui».
90 miliardi di euro di prestito. Sono 20.000 euro per ogni cittadino irlandese, neonati compresi. È un debito sostenibile per Ireland?
Not only is sustainable but it will not work. The Irish people have already paid € 45 billion, one third of GDP, to save the banks with the government program. This bailout adds to the income of € 90 billion, two-thirds of the wealth produced in one year from the country. The IMF and the European Central Bank in this way makes it more difficult road to recovery, impact on the community debts of banks doomed to failure.
What are the long-term consequences of this operation?
In exchange for the loan, the IMF and European Union will impose a restrictive policy that will only worsen the economic situation, with the risk of precipitating a downward spiral with no way out. As happened during the crisis of the '60s and late '80s, once the capitalist system draws on Irish workers and condemned the mass emigration of the country. To know what will happen to Ireland in the coming years, just look at Lithuania and Latvia, from which people fled after the launching of structural adjustment plans.
With the release of the Greens by the majority for early elections to be held in January, seem inevitable. What will happen to the Irish policy?
What awaits us is a sea change similar to what happened in Italy at the end of the First Republic. The Fianna Fail, the ruling party has dominated Irish politics for the past 60 years, serving as a prudent manager of the economy. But after the disaster served to voters will be severely punished and could become a small parties under 10%. Nor will go well with the Greens who have behaved in a cowardly way, putting all the most unpopular decisions of the government and abandoning the sinking ship at the last.
is an opportunity for the left to build an economic alternative to neoliberalism made in Ireland?
All require dopo le prossime elezioni, il Labour Party tornerà al governo, e probabilmente al suo interno la componente di sinistra, marginalizzata negli ultimi anni ne uscirà rafforzata. Ma temo che una volta al governo il Labour si comporterà come ha fatto il Pasok in Grecia. Si legherà mani e piedi al programma imposto dall’Fmi. Così questa rischia di essere un’occasione persa dalla sinistra irlandese per ripensare il nostro modello economico distrutto dal sistema bancario dei mutui spazzatura.
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